Scotland the Brave

On 18 September 2014, Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom will experience an extremely interesting experiment: the Scottish Referendum on independence. I am intrigued by the run-up and am keen to see the result. It might have large implications on the United Kingdom and its participating countries. I regard it as the first popular democratic attempt to let people actually decide in what kind of country they wish to live. However, even without a majority vote in favour, this referendum will have consequences for the United Kingdom but also for the fellow EU-Member States and potentially outside of Europe.

Polls show that the pro-independence group holds the smallest majority though some other inquiries show differently. Immediately, Westminster seemed to be panicking: it offered more autonomy, mainly on financial matters, to Scotland in order to keep the Scots within the Union. Also, the bullying on the issues of EU membership and the currency was intensified.

Furthermore, the three party leader from the three parties, Cameron (Conservatives), Miliband (Labour) and Clegg (Liberal-Democrats) went on an emergency visit to Scotland; a very desperate and pathetic move. Prime-Minister Cameron held a speech, basically begging the Scots to vote no. Hilariously, English regions are now also calling for more tax spending autonomy in case Scotland receives more and full autonomy, as stated by the House of Commons political and constitutional reform committee chairman. Now, it is just waiting for responses from the other entities in the United Kingdom, in Europe and around the world.

Northern Ireland might see its shaky peace disturbed. Why may one group in the Kingdom vote what it wants why others not? Catholics will use it in their argument for joining Ireland and the Protestants to settle the argument in favour of the status quo. In the case demonstrations are held, it will surely lead to riots and tensions which can potentially lead to renewed Troubles. And what about Wales? Wales might desire more autonomy. Personally, I lack a fundamental understanding of the mentality of Welshmen, but watching the reaction when their Rugby team beats the English, I regard that as an insight into their views. However, the Welsh economy might be more dependent on the United Kingdom‘s performance.

Naturally, it can and will lead to problems within the United Kingdom. However, the impact of the referendum, despite its outcome, will be felt in other areas of the European Union. Catalonia already strengthened its demands for independence. Some wicked groups in North Italy will make their shouts louder, in a country still struggling with the economic downtime. In the Baltic States, the opposite might happen: the position of state will be reinforced and reaffirmed, in order to ensure the stability of the state as the countries are populated by significant Russian ethnic population. Of course this should also be viewed in light of the conflict of Eastern Ukraine. And what about Corsica; this French island always had a strong desire for independence. Corsica was independent before, though this sovereignty was short-lived and in the 1950s French troops were sent in to increase the French presence on the island. Moreover, there are still active nationalist movements active on the island, calling for autonomy...or further.

The above mentioned regions are probably on everybody’s mind when discussing regionalisation and nationalism. However, there are several other areas in Europe where people have stronger feelings towards the area than towards the capital of these countries. Less surprisingly for most of the people aware of European politics, one of these regions is Flanders, Belgium. For many years, Belgium as a whole is a disappointment to many Flemish persons. There are disputes about the division of resources, cultural issues and again troubles with forming a federal government. The Scottish referendum most likely will lead to cries for a referendum in Flanders. More surprisingly, two of these areas are Dutch provinces: Friesland and Limburg. Both provinces do not and should not seek independence, but do struggle with their identity within the Netherlands.

Friesland is a province in North Netherlands with its own officially recognised language. The people were mentioned by the Romans, while the conversion to Christianity was a difficult process, as one can see from the example of Bonifatius. The ties to the land are rather strong and one identifies himself or herself as a Dutchman but also a Frisian (more likely the other way around actually). I am convinced that the Frisian anthem is known by all of them, but I have my doubts about the Dutch national anthem. Also, the borders of the province still roughly resemble the lands controlled by the Frisian tribes.

The other province under scrutiny is Limburg, the southern Dutch province. Fighting with the Spanish (Eighty years war, 1568-1648) and the Belgians against the Dutch (Belgian war of independence, 1830), one cannot say that the relation was a happy one from the start. After the independence of Belgium, Limburg was cut in two parts, one Dutch and one Belgian, for both states to profit from the coal mining revenues. Culturally, the area is distinct from the Netherlands: dialect, obvious accent while speaking colloquial Dutch, different cultural festivals. Politically, nepotism seems to be a little more practiced though the corruption levels are not higher than the rest of the state. Further, the area is quite significantly orientated on Germany and Belgium; logically, Brussels is closer than Amsterdam. As an interesting fact, it is the only region NOT under sea levels and therefore a safe haven for the consequences of climate change.   

Both these provinces have nothing to gain with autonomy; neither does the Dutch state. The country is too small for a federal system and I believe the provinces do not have the financial power to afford sovereignty or autonomy. However, it would be interesting to know what lies closer to the heart of the people, the province or the state. In combination with better understanding the needs of the businesses and the people in these areas, knowing the allegiance will give the authorities, both state and provincial, the ability to design better policies. Policies based on these findings will strengthen the allegiance to both the state and the province, while improving the quality of life of the citizens. In classical International relations terminology: a win-win situation.

To come back to the original issue, the Scots are setting an example and a precedent. Probably many spin-offs, whether in new referenda, discussions on state structures and nationhood or talks in the parliaments will follow. Either way, Scotland will face an unknown future. In case of independence, the Scottish people will have to further develop their own institutions, find their position in Europe and the world, and will have no more excuses for failure. In case of a no vote, Scotland needs to regain its confidence and its position in the United Kingdom. Hence whatever the result of the referendum: I salute you, brave Scots, for again defying authorities and taking matters in your own hands.