It is more
than a ‘hot’ topic within international politics. North Korea has declared void
its armistice with South Korea, makes threats to South Korea and the US about
its destruction by nuclear warfare.
Videos about invasions are spread while cyber warfare seems to be going on as well. The bilateral contacts between the two Koreas are over for now, while a co-owned industrial complex in North Korea containing South Korea firms is shut down by the North. After the last nuclear test, the UN has strengthened its sanctions with the help of North Korea’s usual ally China. South Korea is responding to every threat in its own words and the US is strengthening its military capacity in the region. Currently also a South Korean-US army annual exercise is going on and America’s most advanced weapons are participating full in the open, probably to scare off North Korea. Actually except for the talking nothing has happened the last few weeks. Further, the war rhetoric used by all the parties is nothing special; it has happened before and will not stop. North Korea is restating its position, South Korea is responding to it and the US is emphasizing its support for South Korea.
It is all
done out of political reasons, usually domestic politics. The new young North
Korean leader Kim Jong-un has to consolidate his power among old conservative
settled politicians and army generals, and towards other brainwashed people. He
has to do something strong in order to be credible at home. Creating an enemy
outside of the state is a century-old technique used by many before him. South
Korea’s new president also has to consolidate her power and credibility and
therefore responds in these strong words. Also officially South Korea is still
at war with North Korea hence a strong response is logical. For the US, a
strong response based on its pledge to support South Korea and having 30,000 US
soldiers stationed in South Korea, combined with the threats on its own address
leads to a firm response as well.
I do not
believe that any of the parties is aiming for war. The US has enough problems
internally and is about to end a war, the one in Afghanistan. After fighting
two wars at the same time (Afghanistan and Iraq), having a debt problem and
other global issues taking its attention (economic issues, the global power
shift and Iran) the US is not keen on having to fight again. South Korea knows
it will have to fight its own brothers and will face destruction and loss of
human lives among its own people and land. Also, it has seen the struggle of
West Germany to incorporate East Germany, a situation which South Korea faces
for sure after a war on the peninsula. North Korea knows it cannot win, I am
sure they read statistics on US military spending, read military encyclopedia
and magazines. Also, China has provided them with information about the US Army
for sure. Kind of outsiders, China and Europe also do not benefit from a war at
this moment.
However,
there is another problem. The same problem Europe was facing in 1914: threats
towards each other, alliances and constant war rhetoric. One small sparkle can
lead to a skirmish, leading to a fight, to a battle and potentially to full
blown war with all its consequences. Only one bullet crossing the border or a
plane flying on the wrong side of the line can trigger everything. Just as what
happened in 1914 in Sarajevo where the assassination of Archduke of Austria
Franz Ferdinand by Gavrilo Princip led to World War I. Austria-Hungary declared
war on Serbia, Russia supported Serbia got involved, Germany supported
Austria-Hungary, and France and Great Britain had an alliance with Russia. The
Ottoman Empire had an alliance with Austria-Hungary and Germany, also became
involved as well. Hence, seven states went to war based on one final drop, a
single sparkle in Sarajevo.
This
situation is arising on the Korean peninsula as well. The US has a bilateral
alliance with South Korea, while China supports North Korea (though I believe
that out of economic reasons China will not intervene). South Korea is a global
partner of NATO, hence creating a special involvement for European states.
Japan is also not a good friend of North Korea. Furthermore, North Korea has
ballistic missiles making South-East Asia within reach, just as many islands in
the Pacific Ocean. Of course, the countries involved have capacities to take
down missiles but it probable that a war on the Korean peninsula will have
consequences for the entire region.
Moreover,
it is unclear if North Korea has functioning nuclear weapons but it for sure
has nuclear material. Hence it can create an environmental nightmare in the
region. Airplanes can drop the materials over cities or agricultural land.
Rivers can be polluted for centuries or the facilities can be blown up,
creating a new Chernobyl/ Fukushima situation. Many people will die, especially
North Korean soldiers who have been indoctrinated their entire live, just as
happened with Hitlerjugend child soldiers or Japanese soldiers at the end of
World War II. Others will flee to China and end up in refugee camps with all
related problems.
It is a chess piece within the geopolitical
struggle going on in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, between the old powers (US
and Europe) and the emerging countries (BRICS and other Asian states). US
presence on the peninsula will be justified for decades which mean that US
soldiers will be basically at the Chinese border after a new Korean war. China
will be threatened within its first and second ring of defense (according to
Robert Kaplan’s book ‘Monsoon’): the islands surrounding China on its eastern
coastline, together with North Korean main land. European soldiers will be sent
to North Korea for development missions which provide a justification for Western
navy presence in the area. Additionally, the Sea of Japan and the Yellow Sea
probably contain fossil fuel reserves untapped yet….
To end on a
diplomatic tone: the upcoming weeks and months will be very interesting and
exciting for people with an interest in international affairs, and will provide
the world with new challenges to overcome. If the very young North Korean
leader decides to push the button… If not, then we will most probably contemplate for long on who
scared him …
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